Kerman University of Medical Sciences International Journal of Health Policy and Management 2322-5939 11 11 2022 11 01 The Projection of Iran’s Healthcare Expenditures By 2030: Evidence of a Time-Series Analysis 2563 2573 4193 10.34172/ijhpm.2022.5405 EN Nader Jahanmehr Health Economics, Management and Policy Department, Virtual School of Medical Education & Management, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran 0000-0001-5856-5440 Mohammad Noferesti Department of Economics, School of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran 0000-0002-3115-8869 Soheila Damiri Department of Health Management & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran 0000-0002-4070-1894 Zhaleh Abdi National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran 0000-0001-8161-735X Reza Goudarzi Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran 0000-0003-4399-3498 Journal Article 2020 09 03 Background The projection of levels and composition of financial resources for the healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study aimed to project Iran’s HCEs by the sources of funds until 2030. Methods The structural macro-econometric modeling in the EViews 9 software was employed to simulate and project Iran’s HCE by the sources of funds (government health expenditure [GHCE], social security organization health expenditure [SOHCE], out-of-pocket [OOP] payments, and prepaid private health expenditure [PPHCE]). The behavioral equations were estimated by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Results If there is a 5%-increase in Iran’s oil revenues, the mean growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 2% until 2030. By this scenario, the total HCE (THCE), GHCE, SOHCE, OOP, and PPHCE increases about 30.5%, 25.9%, 34.4%, 31.2%, and 33.9%, respectively. Therefore, the THCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from 9.6% in 2016 to 10.7% in 2030. It is predicted that Iran’s THCE will cover 22.2%, 23.3%, 40%, and 14.5% by the government, social security organization (SSO), households OOP, and other private sources, respectively, in 2030. Conclusion Until 2030, Iran’s health expenditures will grow faster than the GDP, government revenues, and non-health spending. Despite the increase in GHCE and total government expenditure, the share of the GHCE from THCE has a decreasing trend. OOP payments remain among the major sources of financing for Iran’s HCE.

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