Exploring the County Level Mortality Pattern Variations in Rural Areas of Iran (2006-2016)

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 Trauma and Injury Research Centre, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

3 Centre for Remote Sensing & GIS Research, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran


Mortality rate in rural areas is a useful measure of the health of the population and the function of the health system, which varies over space and time. The objective of this research is to explore the spatial and temporal variations in the rural mortality rate in Iran at the county level in 2006, 2011, and 2016.
data were gathered from the rural population and mortality statistics published by the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) and the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). Global spatial patterns were assessed using the global Moran’s I and local clusters through the local Moran’s I.
Spatial distribution of rural mortality rate shows that during the years under study the number of counties with a lower rate has increased. The counties with rate of less form continuous areas in the southwest, central and east regions. The excess risk map reveals significant variations in both value and extent. Also, the values of Moran’s index increased from 0.1848 in 2006 to 0.4041 in 2016, which indicates the strengthening of the cluster spatial pattern of the overall rural mortality rate. Local patterns have undergone substantial changes over space and time.
The findings indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in rural mortality rates in Iran. Policymakers can use this information to plan and enhance healthcare infrastructure in specific counties. The findings serve for evaluating the effectiveness of health policies, enabling policy-makers to make informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently and design targeted interventions for improved public health outcomes.


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Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 13 March 2024
  • Receive Date: 18 March 2023
  • Revise Date: 01 December 2023
  • Accept Date: 11 March 2024
  • First Publish Date: 13 March 2024