International Journal of Health Policy and Management

International Journal of Health Policy and Management

Beyond Kingpins: A Structural Approach to Cartel Violence Reduction in Mexico

Articles in Press

Document Type : Viewpoint

Authors
Mohammad Karamouzian 1, 2, 3
Raul Bejarano-Romero 4
Felipe Krause 5
Jaime Arredondo Sanchez Lira 6
Dan Werb 7, 8
1 Centre On Drug Policy Evaluation, MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
2 Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
3 HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
4 San Diego State University Research Foundation, San Diego, CA, USA
5 Latin American Centre, Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, UK
6 Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
7 Centre on Drug Policy Evaluation, MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
8 Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Keywords
Cartel
Violence
Organized Crime
War on Drugs
Mexico
Subjects

A Tactical Success, Yet a Strategic Failure

On February 22, 2026, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG; Jalisco New Generation Cartel), in a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. Within hours, coordinated retaliatory violence erupted across more than 20 of Mexico’s 32 states: over 252 roadblocks, dozens of vehicles torched, at least 62 people killed, and major cities including Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta paralyzed.1 International attention reflected the strategic significance of CJNG, the scale of the coordinated retaliation, and the disruption to civilian life and mobility. For millions of Mexicans, however, such violence is one of the defining features of everyday insecurity. ...(Read more...)

1.            Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana. Tarjeta Informativa. Gobierno de México. February 22, 2026. http://www.gob.mx/sspc/prensa/tarjeta-informativa-420022. Accessed March 2, 2026.
2.            Phillips BJ. How Does Leadership Decapitation Affect Violence? The Case of Drug Trafficking Organizations in Mexico. J Polit. 2015;77(2):324-336. doi:10.1086/680209
3.            Lindo JM, Padilla-Romo M. Kingpin approaches to fighting crime and community violence: Evidence from Mexico’s drug war. J Health Econ. 2018;58:253-268. doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.02.002
4.            Mercille J. Violent Narco-Cartels or US Hegemony? The political economy of the ‘war on drugs’ in Mexico. Third World Q. 2011;32(9):1637-1653. doi:10.1080/01436597.2011.619881
5.            Calderón G, Robles G, Díaz-Cayeros A, Magaloni B. The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico. J Confl Resolut. 2015;59(8):1455-1485. doi:10.1177/0022002715587053
6.            Lessing B. Making Peace in Drug Wars: Crackdowns and Cartels in Latin America. Cambridge University Press; 2017. doi:10.1017/9781108185837
7.            Esberg J. More than Cartels: Counting Mexico’s Crime Rings. International Crisis Group; May 8, 2020. https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/latin-america-caribbean/mexico/more-cartels-counting-mexicos-crime-rings. Accessed March 2, 2026.
8.            Schmidt L. Is this the end of Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel? InSight Crime. May 25, 2025.  https://insightcrime.org/news/is-this-the-end-of-mexicos-sinaloa-cartel/. Accessed March 2, 2026.
9.            Espinosa V, Rubin DB. Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence? Am Stat. 2015;69(1):17-27. doi:10.1080/00031305.2014.965796
10.         Briscoe I, Perdomo C, Uribe Burcher C, eds. Illicit Networks and Politics in Latin America. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy & Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations; 2014. https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/illicit-networks-and-politics-in-latin-america.pdf.
11.         Mia I. The Expansion and Diversification of Mexican Cartels: Dynamic New Actors and Markets. The International Institute for Strategic Studies; December 12, 2024. https://www.iiss.org/publications/armed-conflict-survey/2024/the-expansion-and-diversification-of-mexican-cartels-dynamic-new-actors-and-markets/. Accessed March 2, 2026.
12.         Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. FinCEN Issues Alert on Bulk Cash Smuggling and Repatriation by Mexico-based Transnational Criminal Organizations. FinCEN.gov. March 31, 2025. https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-issues-alert-bulk-cash-smuggling-and-repatriation-mexico-based. Accessed June 18, 2026.
13.         Villegas P. How a Drug Cartel Made a Mexican State Its Tool. N Y Times. May 15, 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/americas/mexican-officials-protect-sinaloa-cartel.html. Accessed June 20, 2026.
14.         Trejo G, Ley S. Votes, Drugs, and Violence: The Political Logic of Criminal Wars in Mexico. Cambridge University Press; 2020. doi:10.1017/9781108894807 
15.         Amnesty International. Mexico: Militarization of public security forces will lead to more human rights violations and perpetuate impunity. Amnesty International Canada. September 9, 2022. https://amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/mexico-militarization-of-public-security-forces-will-lead-to-more-human-rights-violations-and-perpetuate-impunity/. Accessed June 20, 2026.
16.         Ferri P. La Fiscalía mexicana entrega el cuerpo del Mencho a su familia. El País México. February 28, 2026. https://elpais.com/mexico/2026-02-28/la-fiscalia-mexicana-entrega-el-cuerpo-del-mencho-a-su-familia.html. Accessed June 20, 2026.
17.         Amnesty International. Mexico: Disappearances strategy puts search at risk. Amnesty International Canada. July 4, 2024. https://amnesty.ca/urgent-actions/mexico-disappearances-strategy-puts-search-at-risk/. Accessed June 20, 2026.
18.         Prieto-Curiel R, Campedelli GM, Hope A. Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico. Science. 2023;381(6664):1312-1316. doi:10.1126/science.adh2888
19.         Aguilar-Velázquez D, Peréz RC, Mendoza CM, Valenzuela-Aguilera A. Understanding disappearances in Mexico City: A data-driven analysis. PLoS One. 2025;20(9):e0323405. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0323405
20.         Csete J, Kamarulzaman A, Kazatchkine M, et al. Public health and international drug policy. Lancet. 2016;387(10026):1427-1480. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00619-X
21.         Rosenberg M, Ayonrinde O, Conrod PJ, Levesque LL, Selby P. Legislative review of the Cannabis Act: final report of the expert panel. Government of Canada; 2024. https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.934942/publication.html. Accessed March 2, 2026.
22.         Gavrilova E, Kamada T, Zoutman F. Is legal pot crippling Mexican drug trafficking organisations? The effect of medical marijuana laws on US crime. Econ J. 2019;129(617):375-407. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12521
23.         Dudley S, Asmann P, Dittmar V, Farfán-Méndez C, Lettieri M, Vizcarra M. The End of (Illegal) Marijuana: What It Means for Criminal Dynamics in Mexico. InSight Crime; 2022.  https://insightcrime.org/investigations/end-illegal-marijuana-criminal-dynamics-mexico/. Accessed June 20, 2026.
24.         Jaeger K. Mexico Supreme Court Legalizes Marijuana After Politicians Fail. Filter. June 29, 2021. https://filtermag.org/mexico-supreme-court-marijuana-legalization/. Accessed June 20, 2026.
25.         Arredondo J, Gaines T, Manian S, et al. The law on the streets: Evaluating the impact of Mexico’s drug decriminalization reform on drug possession arrests in Tijuana, Mexico. Int J Drug Policy. 2018;54:1-8. doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2017.12.006
26.         Ciccarone D. The rise of illicit fentanyls, stimulants and the fourth wave of the opioid overdose crisis. Curr Opin Psychiatry. 2021;34(4):344-350. doi:10.1097/YCO.0000000000000717
27.         Pardo B, Reuter P. Enforcement Strategies for Fentanyl and Other Synthetic Opioids. Brookings Institution; 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/enforcement-strategies-for-fentanyl-and-other-synthetic-opioids/.
28.         Secretaría de Servicios Parlamentarios. Ley General del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública. 2025. https://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LGSNSP.pdf.
29.         United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Good Practices for the Protection of Witnesses in Criminal Proceedings Involving Organized Crime. https://www.unodc.org/documents/middleeastandnorthafrica/organised-crime/Good_Practices_for_the_Protection_of_Witnesses_in_Criminal_Proceedings_Involving_Organized_Crime.pdf. Published 2008.
30.         Human Rights Watch. Mexico: Events of 2025. In: World Report 2026. 2026. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/mexico. Accessed June 20, 2026.
31.         International Crisis Group. Mexico’s Forgotten Mayors: The Role of Local Government in Fighting Crime. June 23, 2023. https://www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/latin-america-caribbean/mexico/99-mexicos-forgotten-mayors-role-local-government-fighting-crime. Accessed June 20, 2026.
32.         United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. Mexico: UN committee requests General Assembly consideration of enforced disappearance situation. OHCHR; April 2, 2026. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/04/mexico-un-committee-requests-general-assembly-consideration-enforced. Accessed June 20, 2026.
33.         Sabet D. Police Reform in Mexico: Informal Politics and the Challenge of Institutional Change. Stanford University Press; 2012.
34.         Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Firearms Trace Data: Mexico - 2018-2023. October 18, 2024. https://www.atf.gov/firearms/report/firearms-trace-data/firearms-trace-data-mexico-2018-2023. Accessed June 20, 2026.
35.         Hernandez-Roy C, Ziemer H, Duarte A. Under the Gun: Firearms Trafficking in Latin America and the Caribbean. Center for Strategic and International Studies; 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/under-gun-firearms-trafficking-latin-america-and-caribbean. Accessed March 2, 2026.
36.         Jusionyte I. Exit Wounds: How America’s Guns Fuel Violence Across the Border. 1st Edition. University of California Press; 2024.
 
International Journal of Health Policy and Management

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 August 2026

  • Received Date 09 April 2026
  • Revised Date 29 June 2026
  • Accepted Date 07 August 2026
  • First Published Date 09 August 2026
  • Published Date 09 August 2026