The Projection of Iran’s Healthcare Expenditures By 2030: Evidence of a Time-Series Analysis

Document Type : Original Article


1 Health Economics, Management and Policy Department, Virtual School of Medical Education & Management, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Economics, School of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Health Management & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

4 National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

5 Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran


The projection of levels and composition of financial resources for the healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study aimed to project Iran’s HCEs by the sources of funds until 2030.

The structural macro-econometric modeling in the EViews 9 software was employed to simulate and project Iran’s HCE by the sources of funds (government health expenditure [GHCE], social security organization health expenditure [SOHCE], out-of-pocket [OOP] payments, and prepaid private health expenditure [PPHCE]). The behavioral equations were estimated by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.

If there is a 5%-increase in Iran’s oil revenues, the mean growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 2% until 2030. By this scenario, the total HCE (THCE), GHCE, SOHCE, OOP, and PPHCE increases about 30.5%, 25.9%, 34.4%, 31.2%, and 33.9%, respectively. Therefore, the THCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from 9.6% in 2016 to 10.7% in 2030. It is predicted that Iran’s THCE will cover 22.2%, 23.3%, 40%, and 14.5% by the government, social security organization (SSO), households OOP, and other private sources, respectively, in 2030.

Until 2030, Iran’s health expenditures will grow faster than the GDP, government revenues, and non-health spending. Despite the increase in GHCE and total government expenditure, the share of the GHCE from THCE has a decreasing trend. OOP payments remain among the major sources of financing for Iran’s HCE.


  • epublished Author Accepted Version: January 11, 2022
  • epublished Final Version: February 1, 2022
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Volume 11, Issue 11
November 2022
Pages 2563-2573
  • Receive Date: 03 September 2020
  • Revise Date: 25 December 2021
  • Accept Date: 03 January 2022
  • First Publish Date: 11 January 2022